SITREP 29 29 APR 05
SITREP 29 & 30
GENERAL SITUATION:
There are three news items worth mentioning this week.
Item 1 is the announcement that the African Union (AU) plans to increase its force from its
present 2,200 to 7,700 by the end of September of this year. The intended force will include
5,500 military personnel, 1,600 civilian police and 700 military observers. Note that I use ‘plans’
and ‘intended’ rather than ‘will’ and ‘guaranteed’. We shall have to wait and see what materializes.
Item 2 is the internecine squabbling among the Southern factions. As I mentioned in earlier
SITREPS, there is little unity within the SPLM, nor do the numerous other political entities in the
South all look on the SPLM as their representative in the new government. I do not believe that many of
these groups even recognize the legitimacy of the CPA or of the new government. Many of the independent
militias are under the control of no formal party or recognized political entity. Due to the isolation of the entire
South, there is not nearly the journalistic coverage of the area that would be desirable. ‘The rest of the story’
has yet to be heard from Southern Sudan, and I fear that when it is heard it will be no pleasanter than most
of the stories emanating from this unfortunate land.
Item 3 is the nausea surrounding the casualty figures released by the United States Department of State
(USDOS). Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick and the Washington Post’s squabble over the total
number killed reminds me of medieval religious scholars debating as to how many angels could dance on
the head of a pin. Whether it is the lowest (USDOS low end estimate) figure of 60,000, or the highest
(international aid organizations’ top end estimate) of 400,000, it is an awful lot of dead human beings! Whether
it is genocide or just mass murder also seems irrelevant to me. And no government really wants genocide
declared because of the legal and diplomatic requirement that immediate remedial action must be taken if it is declared.
The UN will be able to take no meaningful action in Darfur (even if it had any hope of doing anything more
worthwhile than just passing another resolution), as China will veto any plan with teeth in it because of its oil
investment in the Sudan and its cozy relations with the present Sudanese government. The 16 APR 05
announcement of the discovery of a probable 500,000 bbl per day oilfield in the Darfur area will only exacerbate
an already horrible situation. I have some possible solutions, but I had probably better not go into them now.
JMC OPERATIONS:
Things have been a little quieter this past week. There are some ongoing issues that are being monitored
and/or resolved. A dispute as to whether White Lake in the Extreme southern end of Sector 3 lies in the
GOS Northern area or in the SPLM/A Southern area will take some work to resolve, but the immediate threat
of an outbreak of hostilities seems unlikely.
Preparations for the UN takeover in late June continue. Whether the UN will be ready still remains to be seen.
MICHAEL’S WORLD:
The familiarization & orientation course is well on its way to completion. I am hopeful that it will be
wrapped up next week. And then, of course, there’s my leave. 13 days to D(eparture) Day! That’s it for this week.
I hope that you are all well. Michael · SITREP 30 06 MAY 05
GENERAL SITUATION:
There don’t seem to be any really significant changes in the overall situation. Darfur continues to be bad; the UN
continues to fumble, stumble and creep toward a takeover of JMC, and blunders through its other Sudan commitments.
The thought of so much funding being poured into such a cesspool of incompetence and inaction is distressing to say the least.
More strongly worded comments on this sorry situation to follow, post EOM.
The question of the security of the oil leases and concessions in the Sudan is becoming an issue. What this will mean for
the country’s international economic and political relations will be interesting to observe. More on this later, perhaps?
JMC OPERATIONS:
Plans for the handover/takeover (H/T) with the UN continue. JMC will be ready at the appointed time. Whether or not the UN
will be ready remains very much in doubt. As of this juncture the UN has begun its first two week pre-deployment briefing
of approximately thirty five of the planned seven hundred observers. At this rate it will require eighteen to twenty four months
to complete this phase! There seems to be no guarantee that they will even have people here for the turnkey take over the
facilities which we will vacate at the appointed time.
We in the JMC F&O training have been advised that the start of our in country, Nuba Mountain focused operation will
“probably” be moved back another week to ten days at a minimum. Again, this is due to UN incompetence. This means that
an operation originally intended to commence early in May will now likely begin around the end of May. The program,
originally intended to be spread over five to six weeks, will now have to be squeezed into two weeks. This, of course,
presupposes that the UN will have anyone available to train. I am proceeding as though the course will go off on schedule
on 18 MAY 05 with my colleague, Nick Burrows, taking the first two weeks of classes. I mean, who knows; the UN might
even get its case in order for once.
There is possibly some good news in all this, however. The longer the UN takeover is delayed, the less damage they can do.
Let’s hear it for benign neglect! · MIICHAEL’S WORLD:
You guessed it. The main items on this week’s agenda will be wrapping up the F&O course preparation and LEAVE.
Karen, leave the light on and the key under the mat; I’m coming home for two weeks plus. Actually, I have no doubt that the
light of my life will be waiting for me when I clear Customs & Immigration.
We have still not received any definite word on whether or when American monitors will re-deploy to Darfur.
I understand that there are some inter-governmental discussions going on now that will probably affect the final outcome
in this matter. More information on this as it becomes available.
Next week’s SITREP will be delayed for a few days at least as I will be in transit on Friday, the day on which
it is normally done. Needless to say, I’m looking forward to seeing as many of you as possible in the next few weeks.
Michael · Hello All, December 2005
This is to wish all those who got the SITREP when I was in the Sudan a Merry Christmas or Happy Chanukah,
and a wonderful and prosperous New Year. A year ago I was in land where the life we in the United States take for granted
can only be imagined. It is a life so alien that it can only be imagined but not hoped for in a land in which survival, not creature
comforts, are the main priority. I am back here with my beloved Karen and among friends. Just the former is really enough for
me to feel thoroughly blessed; the latter is frosting on the cake.
The unfortunate message is that I am afraid that our creature comforts and security have made us far too complacent,
and given us a sense of priorities that may be our undoing. While the same people who killed three thousand of us continue to
seek and plan our destuction we unfortunately worry about the civil rights of the foreign thugs who pursue this destruction. We
wax righteous over the interception of communications from these same people,as though the interception of international traffic
inimical to us hasn't been SOP for decades. Some of our officials,and some of our misguided fellow citizens, would have us extend
the rights enjoyed by American citizens to foreign enemies who totally reject these rights, are doing their best to destroy these rights
and the system that fosters and protects them, and wish nothing but ill for us. They would also have us warn foreign agents of our
steps aimed at foiling their intentions! This is patently ridiculous. We are in a fight as serious as any in our history. It is ours to lose.
The blame can be fairly laid at the feet of members of both political parties, but those who would sacrifice the welfare and safety of
American citizens in order to regain lost political power I think are particularly reprehensible. Remember, the dead have no need
for civil rights.
But enough on politics! Let us rather enjoy, and be grateful for, the blessings we enjoy as we approach the Holidays.
We must not, however, lose sight of the reality that these blessings must be earned and sometimes paid for with .blood, sweat and tears.
My best wishes for a wonderful Holiday Season for you all. For those of you who have loved ones in harm's way, or soon to deploy,
you and they are in my prayers. Michael